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The Halfway Point: 2020 Q1 & Q2 Analysis and Looking Ahead
This has been no ordinary year – and this market update reflects that.
April and May were heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. With the country at a standstill, sales dropped dramatically in Q2. However, in every market I reviewed this month, June saw spikes in sales and massive drops in months of inventory.
Why? With many people hesitant to list their home during a pandemic, there are less properties to purchase which lowers months of inventory.
For the most part, total sales are down in 2020 when compared to the same time last year, with the rare exception. But I do think each and every market is due for a hot streak and, judging by my review below, it’s already here.
My prediction: Prepare yourselves for a hot July and August. Why? Watch my market update video below to find out.
Remember, it’s a beautiful life, make it count.
Rich
TORONTO, ON
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board seems to have recovered well from a poor performing April and May due to COVID-19. Month-over-month, June saw an 88.9% increase in sales with 8701 total. Months of inventory dropped 35.3% to 1.6 and the average price rose 7.8% to $931,000.
Looking at year-over-year data, June 2020 looks just as strong, if not stronger, than June 2019. Sales are down 1.8% from last year, however, average price is up 11.8% compared to June 2019.
When comparing 2019 Q1 and Q2 to 2020, there is a lot to digest. Overall, total sales are down 18% year-over-year. While Q1 2020 outperformed 2019 by 22.4%, the introduction of COVID-19 saw 2020 Q2 sales plummet. You can find all of the data in my market update below.
How are micro markets performing in the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board? I take a detailed look at months of inventory between all TRREB micro markets and you can find these interesting findings in my video here.
Click here to download Toronto’s June 2020 market slides.
CALGARY, AB
The Calgary Real Estate Board saw strong data in the month of June. Sales increased month-over-month by 61.8% with a total of 1747, 667 more than in May. Months of inventory dropped 34.3% to 3.6 and the average price rose 5% to $460,000.
Year-over-year, 2020 looks very similar to 2019. Sales decreased slightly in June 2020, down 1.9%, or just 33 sales. Average price is also lower in June 2020, down just 0.8%.
Looking at MOI in Calgary micro markets, apartments are in a league of their own with 6.8 months of inventory. Semi-detached properties are at 3.4 and detached properties boast 2.9 MOI.
How far off are total sales in 2020 compared to the same time last year? Certainly, the Calgary real estate market was heavily impacted by COVID-19 in April and May. Although Q1 sales were 4.1% higher in 2020 than in 2019, you’d be surprised to see the numbers how they stand now.
You can find all of the CREB data here in my market update.
Click here to download Calgary’s June 2020 market slides.
EDMONTON, AB
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton saw a tremendous rebound in sales in June. Month-over-month, sales increased 77.3% with 2051 total in June. With active listings only increasing by 2.5%, months of inventory fell heavily by 42.2%, sitting now at 3.9. Average price rose slightly by 1.8% now sitting at $360,000.
June year-over-year data shows much stronger sales numbers in 2020. Sales were up 13.3% in June 2020 compared to the same time last year. Average price, however, is down 1.6% in June 2020.
Q1 2020 was very comparable to Q1 2019. Sales were up only slightly by 0.47% or 14 total sales. Q2 2020 however tells a much different story. Total sales in Q2 dropped 27.7% in 2020 compared to 2019 and total yearly sales are down 17.7% year-over-year.
With 3.9 months of inventory, this is the lowest MOI Edmonton has seen since July 2015! Why is that? Check out my explanation of the current market conditions here in my June 2020 market update.
Click here to download Edmonton’s June 2020 market slides.
VANCOUVER, BC
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is reporting a strong June with favourable numbers. Month-over-month, sales increased 64.5% with 2443 total. Months of inventory dropped 30% and now sits at 4.7 and benchmark price dipped slightly by 0.3% to $1,025,000.
Year-over-year data shows a much stronger June 2020 compared to June 2019 even with COVID-19. Sales are up over 17% year-over-year and benchmark price is also up by 2.7%.
How do 2019 Q1 and Q2 compare to 2020 Q1 and Q2? You might be surprised to see that 2020 is still outselling 2019 even with COVID-19 and government quarantines introduced. What do the numbers look like? Take a look at my REBGV market update video here.
Click here to download Vancouver’s June 2020 market slides.
OTTAWA, ON
The Ottawa Real Estate Board boasts the lowest months of inventory of any market I have reviewed. Month-over-month, MOI dropped 35.5% and now sits at just 0.9. Sales went up 52.6% to 2052 total in June and average price rose 4.9% to $531,000.
Year-over-year, sales are down slightly by 2.5% and average price is up 16.4%.
While most markets are producing less total sales in 2020, the Ottawa Real Estate Board remains the exception. How does 2020 sales compare to last year? Take a look at my data-packed OREB market update video here.